![]() ![]() ![]() Which estimation is more accurate? A technical comments on Nature Paper by Liu et al on overestimation of China’s emission. ![]() Carbon: resolve ambiguities in China’s emissions. National Bureau of Statistics of China China Statistical Yearbook 2014 (China Statistics Press, 2014) National Bureau of Statistics of China China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2014 (China Statistics Press, 2015). National Bureau of Statistics of China Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2013 National Economic and Social Development (China Statistics Press, 2014) National Bureau of Statistics of China Plan for the Third National Economic Census (第三次经济普查方案) (China Statistics Press, 2013) Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China. 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas InventoriesCh. National Bureau of Statistics of China China Statistical Yearbook 2015 (China Statistics Press, 2015). Understanding energy intensity data in China (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2011) National Bureau of Statistics of China 2015 China Statistical Abstract (2015中国统计摘要) (China Statistics Press, 2015). Explaining sectoral discrepancies between national and provincial statistics in China. The gigatonne gap in China’s carbon dioxide inventories. World Energy Outlook 2015 (International Energy Agency, 2015) World Energy Outlook Special Report (International Energy Agency, 2015) China’s ‘New Normal’: Better Growth, Better Climate (ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy/Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, 2015) Įnergy and Climate Change. ![]() National Bureau of Statistics of China Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2014 National Economic and Social Development (China Statistics Press, 2015) We also analyse recent revisions of official energy statistics, and find that they imply 925 MtCO 2 (11.2%) higher emissions for 2013, and 7.6 GtCO 2 (9.2%) higher total emissions for 2000–2013. We show that the preliminary 2.9% reduction in coal consumption is inappropriate for estimating CO 2 emissions, that coal-derived energy consumption stayed flat but is likely to have decreased in 2015, and that Chinese fossil CO 2 emissions probably increased ∼0.8% in 2014. Here, we analyse these preliminary announcements, with an approach that can be used to assess the robustness of similar future announcements. For example, BP used different Chinese data to estimate a 0.9% increase in 2014 CO 2 emissions 7, 8. However, Chinese energy statistics are frequently revised and often contain large anomalies 5, 6, implying high uncertainty. Similar preliminary coal consumption statistics are announced every year, and will be watched closely after China’s recent slowdown in emissions growth and pledge to peak emissions in 2030 or earlier. The International Energy Agency used it to estimate ∼1.5% reduction in Chinese fossil CO 2 emissions for 2014 3, and an unprecedented 0.2% reduction in global emissions 4. This was hailed as historic after China’s meteoric growth in the 2000s 2. Chinese coal consumption dropped 2.9% in 2014 according to preliminary official statistics 1 released in 2015. ![]()
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